Emerging Patterns in Global Trade: 2020 and Beyond

2020 was, for policy observers, somewhat akin to being stuck inside a pinball machine, surrounded by the constant whirring and buzzing of one dramatic policy development after and another — with an uncomfortable proportion of these developments delivered through Twitter. The year (and hopefully most of the drama) has come to an end and many are looking forward to 2021 as heralding a new era of optimism for our shared struggle against the global pandemic, a post-pandemic economic expansion, and perhaps more tempered leadership from liberal democracies. With so many disruptive developments, global trade has been a roller coaster ride that firms have had to contend with to ensure business continuity.

For the past four-and-a-half years, I have worked as a private sector trade compliance and policy specialist and have had the opportunity to speak to hundreds of companies throughout the U.S., the E.U., and Japan about their market access challenges. Below is my attempt to marry some of those ‘in-the-weeds’ observations with market-level developments more broadly reported in the media.

The United States: Tariffs and forced labor

Without a doubt, the most disruptive development for the supply chains of companies based in the U.S. has been President Trump’s willingness to use tariffs as “corrective” measures in…